Today I’m gonna talk about a trade I ran against Binance’s own order flow back in 2024, and the method I used to find many similar trades since then.
The basic principle is that price moves driven by trades with no information content revert, while moves with information behind them stay, or even keep going. I built a single number that tells the two apart in real time.
Then I found the best source of uninformed moves I’ve ever seen. It was something Binance ran themselves, built so that nobody could trade ahead of it, and they said so in their own docs. Then I proceeded to trade ahead of it anyway.
What we’ll cover in this article:
The number that measures the information content of price moves.
What Binance built, and why it broke.
The signal, the entry, and the exit.